Performance Analysis Of AllWeather_BA
Your retirement should be a time of well-deserved freedom and enjoyment. No one wants to have a retirement filled with worry and uncertainty. Wayne Firebaugh is a Registered Investment Advisor that specializes in helping folks just like you cultivate your future. Wayne is independent and not tied to one company or investment platform, so he's free to pick and choose from the widest possible array of investment options that will provide the best results. There are no kick-backs and no conflicts of interest. Your best interests are our only interests, period.
Wayne's distinction as a fiduciary and Registered Investment Advisor means he creates investment strategy based on the professional belief any suggestions are in your best interest. Our undivided loyalty lies solely with our clients, and our firm has adopted a Code of Ethics to ensure that we live up to our fiduciary obligations. Unfortunately, not all "financial advisers" work for federally or state-registered investment advisory firms. Many so-called financial advisers are registered representatives, better known as brokers, and are employed by brokerage firms.
When building your investment portfolio, there are five time-tested principles that can help you enjoy a life of financial health and independence. However, a lifetime of successful investing also requires two things in addition to your portfolio: 1.) You need a cash reserve. A minimum of three months’ living expenses absorb costs and limit portfolio withdrawals when life turns unpredictable. 2.) You need a plan. Your investments should serve the broader financial plan - without a plan, you’ll never know how much is enough to retire with confidence.
Every investment, from the bank certificate of deposit, to the leveraged option, includes some type of risk. However, risk can take many forms...holding cash in reserve can result in diminished purchasing power due to inflation, or investments can result in reduced principal values. The returns your investments provide should be viewed as compensation for your assumption of risk or accepting limits on the readiness of funds - or both. The investment profession has a number of tools designed to ensure that your portfolio’s relative risk level is “tolerable” but your ability to absorb or tolerate risk is often considered without reference to the portfolio mix required to meet your timeframe goals.
|Years in track record||0|
|Benchmark||Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund|
About Net Returns
Performance statistics are shown net of all fees and estimated trading costs.
|Year to date||0%|
|Last 12 months||n/a|
|Past 3 years||n/a|
|Past 5 years||n/a|
|Past 10 years||n/a|
About Rolling 12-Month Returns
Twelve-month rolling portfolio statistics are computed using sequential 12-month rolling time windows. This is important because a strategy with a track record of 0 years such as will only have 0 data points for calendar returns, but either 1 or 0 samples of returns over 252 business days depending on whether data is available on a daily or monthly basis respectively, each of which corresponds to one annual period. Therefore the analysis of rolling 12-month windows gives a sensible aggregate view of the strategy's historical behavior over an average annual period.
The strategy has been profitable in 0 percent of annual periods, and negative over the remaining 100 percent. Its long-term average annual return of 0 percent has been achieved with performance swings ranging from +0 percent in the best year to 0 percent in the worst period. Further discussion of these results is provided with the bar chart showing the strategy's net annual returns.
|Number of positive periods||0%|
|Average when positive||0%|
|Average when negative||0%|
|Best 12 months||0%|
|Worst 12 months||0%|
About Rolling Monthly Returns
Monthly rolling portfolio statistics are computed using sequential monthly rolling time windows, each of which corresponds to the 21 open business days for which data is available each calendar month.
The strategy has been profitable in 0 percent of monthly periods since inception on 05/28/2020, and negative over the remaining 100 percent. When a monthly period is profitable, it returns and average of +0 percent. When it loses money, the average loss is 0 percent. In its 0 years since inception, the strategy's long-term average monthly return of 0 percent has been achieved with performance swings ranging from +0 percent in the best monthly period to 0 percent in the worst period.
|Number of positive months||0%|
|Average when positive||0%|
|Average when negative||0%|
|Average monthly return||0%|
|Risk score (0 to 100):||0|
|Trough to recovery||0 months|
Since inception on 05/28/2020, your strategy has been 0 percent correlated to the broad stock represented by the market index with ticker symbol VTSMX. Its correlation to the bond market, represented by ticker symbol FBIDX, is 0 percent.
This table also lists the strategy's capture ratios that describe how much of its benchmark's upside captures when the benchmark is profitable (0 percent since inception), and how much of the benchmark's loss it experiences when that benchmark is down (0 percent). Click the words highlighted in blue to check their definition.
|Beta to benchmark||0|
|Alpha versus benchmark||0%|
About Expected Returns
This chart gives an indication of the potential growth of this strategy based on the statistical analysis of its performance from inception on 05/28/2020 through 05/28/2020. The analysis calculates the historical distribution of the strategy's returns over time windows of varying lengths ranging from a few months to several years. Each of these distributions is further analyzed to compute average returns and their standard deviation over each time window. These results are then projected forward to create a range for the expected growth of a new investment on 05/28/2020.
Our financial engines have analyzed your portfolio's data over all 6-month time windows, annual periods, three-year periods and so on, that are available since 05/28/2020. The 0 percent average expected growth of your portfolio over the next 6 months that is shown in the chart is equal to the average return of the portfolio over a typical 6-month period between 05/28/2020 and 05/28/2020. Over that same time interval, the top 5 percent of all 6-month periods delivered returns in excess of 0 percent. This corresponds to the maximum growth with 95 percent confidence shown on the chart. Similarly the worst 5 percent of all 6-month periods delivered returns below 0 percent which corresponds to the value for minimum growth with 95 percent confidence.
The historical results of your portfolio were analyzed in this manner to construct the forward-looking growth curves on this chart. While historical results are no guarantee of future performance, this analysis does offer insights in the behavior you might expect from this investment strategy not because it will necessarily happen in the way the graph shows, but because the graph condenses a very large amount of historical data so as to show what has actually happened before.
Consider what the chart suggests you can expect after investing in this portfolio. Starting with 1000 dollars on 05/28/2020, the portfolio could be worth anywhere between 1000 dollars and 1000 dollars after six months. After a year, the portfolio could be worth between 1000 dollars and 1000 dollars. These figures are wholly consistent with a long-term net return of 0 percent for this investment strategy. But long-term returns only materialize for investors who appreciate that the natural volatility of an investment strategy means that it is not reasonable to expect to make money over the short term, including when money is first invested. In effect the minimum growth curve in this chart gives an indication of how long it could take for a new investment to start making money since what it shows has happened before, albeit in a small number of cases.
You might wonder how you can maximize your chances of being on the maximum growth path instead of the minimum path as you invest in this or any other strategy. To some extent this is the luck of the draw, driven by market conditions at the time an investment is made. The impact of market conditions when you make an investment can be somewhat attenuated by investing money over time instead of in a lump-sum, an approach known as dollar-cost averaging.
About Risk Versus Return
This chart compares your portfolio net returns and volatility (the standard deviation) since inception to two broad U.S. bond and stock market indices with ticker symbols FBIDX and VTSMX respectively. Higher returns with smaller standard deviations are better, so that portfolios in the upper left quadrant of this chart are more desirable than those in the bottom right quadrant.
Note that the size of each bubble is proportional to the Sharpe ratio, a standard financial measure of the quality of your portfolio's returns. Larger bubbles are more desirable. They indicate that the portfolio has historically generated higher returns per 'unit' of investment risk.
About This Asset Class Comparison
This chart compares net returns of your portfolio and global asset classes over the past several years. A highly diversified portfolio will tend to hug the middle of the chart over time. A portfolio biased towards a particular asset class will tend to move in lockstep with that asset class.
Each asset class is represented by a mutual fund or exchange traded fund proxy. Place your mouse over the table to see the ticker symbol corresponding to each asset class.
About Efficient Frontiers
The efficient frontier illustrates the range of risk versus return offered by Waynefirebaugh Inc. The portfolios on the efficient frontier are those that historically offer the highest return for the risk taken, where risk is measured by the swings in performance over time, namely volatility.
It is possible that your portfolio is hidden behind other portfolio bubbles on this chart. You should be able to pinpoint its approximate position with an annual return of 0 percent and volatility of 0 percent.
If any are present, portfolios built by other investors are labeled "Portfolio_xx". You can click on these portfolios to view their historical track record anonymously. You can then save and track them for yourself and eventually invest in them if you wish.
It is not necessary for a portfolio to be on the efficient frontier to represent a sensible investment. An investment portfolio serves a purpose within an overall investment plan, be that asset diversification, investment style diversification or corresponds to some other return factor or risk mitigation objective. An investment plan also reflects a combination of market views going forward, investment constraints and objectives. The efficient frontier is composed of portfolios that for good reasons may not be a fit a specific plan.
They are computed relative to the strategies that lie on the efficient frontier. A portfolio with zero return and zero risk would get a score of zero. The portfolio on the efficient frontier that represents the highest return for a minimum amount of risk gets a score of 100. All other portfolios are scored within that range using a coherent analysis of their financial performance so as to make the scores comparable.
About Net Annual Returns
Annual returns are displayed below for each calendar year where data is available. All figures are net of all fees and trading costs, and the 0 percent year-to-date return of your portfolio was computed through 05/28/2020.
Keep in mind that calendar year returns are best viewed as only quick and dirty reference points because they are to a large extent accidents of the calendar. The best way to assess annual returns is through an analysis of returns across all available twelve-month time periods, of which calendar years are only a limited subset.
Our financial engines have calculated that your portfolio has historically generated positive returns in 0 percent of annual periods. When annual returns are positive, they average +0 percent. In the 100 percent of annual periods when returns were negative, the average loss has been 0 percent. It is important to keep in mind that investment strategies make money over time by sometimes losing money and other times making money. Your portfolio has generated annual returns of 0 percent since inception on 05/28/2020 with performance swings ranging from 0 percent for the worst twelve months to +0 percent during the best annual period.
This analysis of annual returns should give you a sense of the difference between winning and losing annual periods, and some comfort around the idea that there will be losing years. Losing years are part and parcel of making money over time, and assuming one has confidence in the investment approach, the long-term returns it can deliver will only materialize if one sticks with the strategy during its losing periods.
About The Comparison Of Best Periods
This chart displays the top 5 periods when the strategy performed at its best since inception. Each period contains 21 trading days which corresponds to about one calendar month. The performance of the strategy in percentage points is shown compared to its benchmark over the same time period. This chart should be assessed together with the comparable chart that shows the periods when the strategy performed at its worst. In cases where a benchmark mostly beats an investment strategy during its best periods, one often finds that the strategy experiences smaller losses than the benchmark during its worst periods, and vice and versa. The cumulative effect of successive time periods when markets favor and then are adverse to a particular investment strategy is what creates long term returns. This chart helps understand how aggressive the strategy is relative to its benchmark when market conditions are highly favorable.
About The Comparison Of Worst Periods
This chart displays the top 5 periods when the strategy performed the worst since inception. Each period contains 21 trading days which corresponds to about one calendar month. The performance of the strategy in percentage points is shown compared to its benchmark over the same time period. This chart should be assessed together with the comparable chart that shows the periods when the strategy performed at its best. In cases where a benchmark mostly beats an investment strategy during its best periods, one often finds that the strategy experiences smaller losses than the benchmark during its worst periods, and vice and versa. The cumulative effect of successive time periods when markets favor and then are adverse to a particular investment strategy is what creates long term returns. This chart helps understand how well the strategy protects capital relative to its benchmark when market conditions are highly unfavorable.
About The Equity Growth Curve
The growth of an investment in your portfolio on 05/28/2020 is compared to an investment in a benchmark market index. The index for your portfolio is the security with ticker symbol VTSMX. If your portfolio consists of a mix of investment strategies that have their own benchmarks, our financial engines have automatically selected for your portfolio the most heavily weighted benchmark in your chosen mix of strategies.
The vertical axis of this chart uses a logarithmic scale to represent the dollar value of your investment account. The benefit of using a log scale is that percentage up and down swings in account values look the same on the chart for all time periods. For instance a dip corresponding to a 2 percent loss in the year 2013 would look the same size on this chart as a 2 percent dip in a previous year.
About Distributions of Returns
The returns distribution charts display on the vertical axis the number of events in the historical track record that a specific return - shown on the horizontal axis - was achieved. Typically these charts will show small bars at both ends of the graph, and higher bars as one nears the middle. This means that extreme events of highly positive or negative returns are achieved relatively rarely, while returns closer to the center of the chart are more frequent, hence the higher bars.
Negative returns are colored in red, positive returns in green to make the charts more intuitive. For many investment strategies with sufficient track record, you may notice that the distribution of daily returns appears nearly symmetrical about the center of the chart. This is because on a daily basis, the chance that markets be up or down is close to even. Since strategies are designed to make returns over time however, as one views return distribution over longer periods, such as months, quarters or years, the peak of the distribution will shift toward the average return over that period. For strategies with strong positive performance, the number of red bars will get smaller with longer time horizons and green bars will dominate.
There are a number of other quantifications of investment risk that can be derived statistically from a detailed analysis of these distributions, such as tail risk, kurtosis and skewness.
Drawdowns represent the difference on each date between the current account value and the most recent peak account value. When an investment strategy reaches a new high, the drawdown is zero by definition. As market prices move, a strategy may reach new highs a few days in a row, but eventually prices move down so that the account dips below its most recent peak value. For example if the most recent account peak value was $10,000 and the account is now worth $9,800, the drawdown of 200 dollars is represented on that day as -200 divided by 10,000 or -2 percent.
It is important to realize that investment strategies reach new highs only once in a while, so that investment accounts are in a state of drawdown most of the time as a consequence of natural market volatility.
Our financial engines have calculated a maximum drawdown of 0 percent for your portfolio by analyzing all available data from inception on 05/28/2020 through 05/28/2020, and a current drawdown of 0 percent as of 05/28/2020. The average drawdown since inception has been 0 percent. The chart below gives a detailed picture of your portfolio's historical drawdowns. It highlights when they happened, how deep they were and how long it took to recover to the previous peak value. Comparing the shape and timing of your portfolio's drawdowns to those of the benchmark helps build the proper expectations for the future likely behavior of the investment strategy.
Volatility is one measure of risk in an investment strategy. It is also referred to as the strategy's standard deviation. Volatility measures the swings of a strategy's returns above and below their average value. For instance if returns equal 10 percent annually over long periods of time, but in most individual years returns fluctuate between 3 and 17 percent, these fluctuations of 7 percent above and below the 10 percent average are what volatility represents. Because volatility is simply a statistical measure of swings around an average, it is possible to calculate it over time-windows of various lengths.
Our financial engines calculated a 0 percent volatility for your portfolio using all available data from inception on 05/28/2020 through 05/28/2020. The chart below paints a more subtle picture of the behavior of the portfolio by computing swings in returns across sliding time windows of 3 months. This means that each data point on this chart represents the standard deviation of the portfolio's returns over the preceding 3 months. You will most likely notice that volatility tends to spike in periods of market stress such as 2008. This is because prices tend to fall faster in times of crisis than they rise when market conditions are normal or favorable. When prices rise steadily, as stock prices do during bull markets for instance, their volatility tends to be low because swings around the rising average return tend to be small. However, keep in mind that low volatility does not necessarily mean low risk. It is possible for a security or strategy to steadily lose money, in which case volatility can be low but be a reflection of continuing negative returns which is hardly a low-risk situation.
It is best to think of volatility as one of several indicators that help investors develop realistic expectations for the likely future behavior of their portfolio across different market regimes.
About Sharpe Ratio
This chart shows the rolling 3-year Sharpe ratios of the portfolio and its benchmark Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund. That means that each data point on these curves represents the corresponding strategy's Sharpe ratio computed using performance data over the past 3 years and a risk-free rate of 1 percent.
The portfolio's Sharpe ratio since inception on 05/28/2020 is 0. Its time history is intended to yield a clearer picture of how the quality of returns has historically been impacted by various market environments.
About Rolling Quarterly Returns
This chart shows the rolling quarterly returns of the portfolio net of all fees and trading costs. This means that each data point on the chart represents the net return of the past three months as of that date.
About Rolling Z-Scores
This chart shows the Z-Score statistics of rolling quarterly returns net of all fees and trading costs. A Z-Score of 0 means that the quarterly return on that date is the average quarterly return since inception. Z-Scores of +2 and -2 mean that the quarterly returns are respectively above and below the average by 2 standard deviations. This chart can be used to visualize the evolution of returns across market environments and to highlight performance deviations from historical patterns.
This chart shows the rolling 6-month correlation of the portfolio to its benchmark (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund).
Beta is a measure of how a portfolio moves in relation to a reference market index. A beta of 1 means that the index and the portfolio move in unison. In that case if the index gains 2 percent, the portfolio will also gain 2 percent, and if the index loses half a percent, the portfolio will also lose half a percent. A beta of 0.3 means that if the index moves up 1 percent, the portfolio will gain only 0.3 percent. Negative betas indicate that the portfolio will move in the opposite direction from the index. With a beta of -0.3, should the index move up 2 percent the portfolio will lose 0.6 percent. If the index loses 1 percent, the portfolio will gain 0.3 percent.
The market index used for your portfolio is the security with symbol VTSMX. Our financial engines have computed your portfolio's average beta as 0 since inception on 05/28/2020. The chart below gives a more detailed view of the portfolio's behavior over time by displaying its rolling 6-month beta. This means that each data point on the chart corresponds to the portfolio's beta to VTSMX calculated over the previous 6 months. It is worth noting that because market correlations are not stable, your portfolio's average beta since inception (0) may be quite different than the average of the 6 months rolling beta shown below.
About Net Monthly Returns
This performance table displays the calendar monthly returns of your investment strategy from inception on 05/28/2020 through 05/28/2020. Results are shown net of all fees and trading costs.
An examination of monthly calendar returns is most useful to investors familiar with the historical behavior of capital markets who can develop insights into the strategy's risk exposures implied by the difference between the strategy's performance and markets returns in specific months.
An alternative way to assess monthly returns is through the analysis of the strategy's rolling monthly returns. That analysis shows that your portfolio has historically returned +0 percent over a typical month. Since 05/28/2020 it has generated positive returns in 0 percent of monthly periods. When a month was positive, it returned +0 percent on average while in the 100 percent of losing months the average loss was 0 percent.
Keep in mind that the strategy's long term returns will only materialize for investors who are confident enough to remain invested through periods of negative returns. Although historically monthly returns have averaged +0 percent, that average assumes investors remained invested through the worst monthly return of 0 percent, and through the best monthly period that returned +0 percent.